This article is part of our The MMA Mashup series.
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Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Vegas 18, which is set to hit UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., Feb. 6, 2021), including best bets, underdogs, favorites. This article is part of our The MMA Mashup series. Last time, we had so much fun that they let us back in the door for the second installment of The MMA Mashup for UFC 258, which begins Saturday at 6:30 PM EST. This week, we get our first look at multiplier plays with SuperDraft as we once again.
Often, content found in this space will stay in one lane. It's either DFS or betting. DraftKings or FanDuel. If you're anything like me, though, your interests extend beyond one particular platform. You like to look in multiple areas to find the biggest edge. It's with this in mind that we debut a new article series: The MMA mashup. Every week I will look at plays from across multiple platforms to bring players successful strategies from where they play. The bulk of the content will include the most popular haunts, but we will also look at sites like Monkey Knife Fight, Prize Picks, and Super Draft. This week, we find the sweet spots on a 13-fight card beset with late replacements, including a (+200) underdog squaring off against a two-fight UFC veteran who looks to be gathering momentum. One final note before we begin: as with my 'Handicapping the Octagon' article series, all betting lines are taken from William Hill.
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Bets to Consider:
Joselyne Edwards: (+200)
The betting public hammered down a (+205) opening line on Joselyne Edwards prior to her UFC debut with Wu Yanan until she was actually a small favorite in some places. I feel something similar will happen before her sophomore effort against Karoline Rosa, whose two UFC wins include a debuting fighter and a woman who is currently 1-3 in the organization. That's not to say she doesn't have skills, but Rosa's style of leaving her chin up while in the pocket has resulted in the Brazilian fighter absorbing 7.00(!) significant strikes per minute, and neither of her previous opponents had the power of Edwards, who has finished half of her wins by KO/TKO. Edwards also has a knack for using her length to keep women on the end of her punches and will come into this fight with a three-inch reach advantage. Things may get interesting if Rosa decides to wrestle, but I trust Edwards' active guard to keep her safe, as it did in the Yanan fight.
Youssef Zalal by decision: (+150)
I like a lot of what Seungwoo Choi does inside the cage as a physically strong pressure fighter who throws in combinations. The problem for him here is that Youssef Zalal will be the faster, cleaner striker with better wrestling. What has me eyeing this play so closely is Zalal has yet to get a finish in his three UFC fights, and Choi has shown himself to be incredibly tough. While it's true he got submitted in his last fight by Gavin Tucker, I would argue that was the result of being caught in one bad position rather than something that should be a lingering concern. I always say that the magic of props is turning juice plays into plus money, and while the submission remains something of a concern, I've seen enough to question whether Zalal can be a finisher at this level.
Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes under 1.5 Rounds: (-162)
There's no denying that both Devonte Smith and Justin Jaynes like to get their work done quickly. How quickly? 13 of their last 14 combined fights have finished inside the first round. The only fight that went over during that stretch, Jaynes' bout with Gavin Tucker, required Tucker to literally drop his shorts to survive after getting knocked down and stuck in a mounted guillotine. I expect these two to open up firing and leave us plenty of time to spare to call this one a winner.
Cody Stamann/Timur Valiev parlay: ( -172)
What to do with a pair of huge favorites facing inferior opponents who are taking fights on impossibly short notice? Parlay them, of course. Askar Askar seems like an unrelenting pressure fighter with power, but it's notable that he doesn't seem to know how to cut off the cage. Following a wrestler with Stamann's skill around in a circle is a good way to get put on the ground with reactive double-leg takedowns, and I expect him to be the stronger fighter here. Next, we have Martin Day taking on Timur Valiev. Valiev may have gotten caught and stopped by Trevin Jones in what is now a no-contest due to a failed drug test, but Valiev was putting on a show before that fateful strike, mixing his targets and throwing with power. Day can do a bit of everything inside the cage but is far too hittable on the counter and will be asked to keep up with the much more athletic fighter in Valiev.
DraftKings Plays to Consider:
Clay Guida ($7,400)
The nice thing about the tweaks to the DraftKings scoring system is that many of the categories work in concert with each other. A committed wrestler can hit their takedown (+5 points), establish top control (0.03 points/second), and land 'regular strikes' (+0.2 points) as well as significant strikes. This should work out well for Clay Guida, who has had a lot of quick fights of late but was at his smothering best against B.J. Penn in 2019 (I know, I know) when he notched a takedown, over four minutes of control time, and 113 total strikes. Unless you count Andre Fili (who didn't start going for takedowns until Round 2), you have to go back to Gleison Tibau in 2014 to find a Michael Johnson victory over a committed wrestler. Add in the fact that Johnson hasn't had a knockout win since 2016, and the path begins to look good for Guida, as I just don't see Johnson fading his wrestling for the better part of 15 minutes.
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,300)
Manel Kape looks like an active striker who has power and sets a furious pace. Still, It's hard to pick him in a matchup with Alexandre Pantoja after seeing the way he was absolutely big-bothered on the mat by Kyoji Horiguchi in 2017 before being submitted. Pantoja is relentless when it comes to hunting for grappling exchanges (particularly early in fights), and Kape can lose some of his steam when someone else is doing the pressuring. While I expect him to get this done inside the distance, Pantoja's price here is low enough that he can put up a nice score if forced to sit in dominant position.
Alistair Overeem ($7,600)
Alexander Volkov wants to stand on a napkin and have a kickboxing match in the center of the Octagon. One thing we have seen from late-career Alistair Overeem is movement and agility in the cage. He has also gone to his wrestling quite a bit more, as seen in fights with Jair Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. Volkov's takedown defense has improved, but anyone who has wanted to has still been able to take him to the mat. This should act as a nice escape hatch if Overeem gets in trouble on the feet with the Russian fighter.
Fanduel Plays to Consider:
Mike Rodriguez ($20)
When speaking of novel scoring categories, it might be fair to say that none have had a bigger impact than 'takedowns defended.' We saw this most recently with Austin Lingo, who broke the slate in a major way when he paired his 95 significant strikes, knockdown, and takedown with 18 (!) takedowns defended against Jacob Kilburn. Mike Rodriguez may be able to pull off a similar feat against Danilo Marques, who landed just five of 16 takedowns against Khadis Ibragimov in his UFC debut. Rodriguez is the odds-on favorite to get a knockout as the rangy, powerful kickboxer with experience, and he could put up a huge score if he thwarts a few attempts along the way.
Cory Sandhagen ($23)
The same is true for Cory Sandhagen, except he has five rounds to accumulate points against Frankie Edgar, who is a whopping 3-for-33 in landed takedowns over his last five fights. To be sure, Sandhagen's takedown defense (30 percent) leaves something to be desired, but even if Frankie lands a few, Sandhagen has been a wizard when it comes to popping back up to his feet, which will leave the former champion to contend with an incredibly crafty striker who has a five-inch height advantage.
Ode Osbourne ($TBD)
Ode Osbourne was taught a quick lesson in leaving your neck out in his UFC debut against Brian Kelleher and will have to worry about submissions yet again when he faces late replacement, Jerome Rivera. The important thing to note here is that Rivera, who missed on all five of his takedown attempts in his last fight against Francisco Figueiredo, stands straight up in the pocket and has already been knocked out once in the UFC. If he can't get his wrestling going, he will have a hard time dealing with Osbourne, who throws clean, straight punches and kicks.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays to Consider:
Molly McCann u/106.5 sig. strikes + Lara Procopio U 110.5 sig. strikes
Her UFC debut against Karoline Rosa may suggest otherwise, but tape of Lara Procopio on the Brazilian regional scene shows a much more grapple-centric approach than the one we saw in August of 2019. She should also feel more comfortable taking this approach against a boxer like McCann. This sort of game plan would affect McCann as well, as every second she is up against the cage defending a takedown is a second she is not striking at range. We saw this in her most recent fight with Taila Santos when 'Meatball' landed just 48 significant strikes, due in no small part to Santos' seven takedown attempts.
Beneil Dariush under 54.5 sig. strikes + Diego Ferreira under 75.5 sig. strikes
I reject the assumption that Beneil Dariush will go out and try to throw hands with Diego Ferreira. I think it much more likely that, as I mentioned above, the forcing of a grappling game will work to depress output from both fighters. In their first fight, we saw that both men are perfectly willing to work their respective jujitsu games, and while it's beyond fair to point out that that bout took place in 2014, we have also seen Ferreira employ grapple-heavy strategies in the recent past. Another thing to note about playing these unders is that we are more likely to win if the fight results in an early stoppage, and these two have combined to finish seven of their last nine bouts before the third round.
This article is part of our The MMA Mashup series.
Last time, we had so much fun that they let us back in the door for the second installment of The MMA Mashup for UFC 258, which begins Saturday at 6:30 PM EST. This week, we get our first look at multiplier plays with SuperDraft as we once again guide discerning DFS players and gamblers across multiple platforms to determine the best places to play each fight on the 12-bout slate. One final note before we begin: as with my Handicapping the Octagon article series, all betting lines are taken from William Hill.
The nice thing about the tweaks to the DraftKings scoring system is that many of the categories work in concert with each other. A committed wrestler can hit their takedown (+5 points), establish top control (0.03 points/second), and land 'regular strikes' (+0.2 points) as well as significant strikes. This should work out well for Clay Guida, who has had a lot of quick fights of late but was at his smothering best against B.J. Penn in 2019 (I know, I know) when he notched a takedown, over four minutes of control time, and 113 total strikes. Unless you count Andre Fili (who didn't start going for takedowns until Round 2), you have to go back to Gleison Tibau in 2014 to find a Michael Johnson victory over a committed wrestler. Add in the fact that Johnson hasn't had a knockout win since 2016, and the path begins to look good for Guida, as I just don't see Johnson fading his wrestling for the better part of 15 minutes.
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,300)
Manel Kape looks like an active striker who has power and sets a furious pace. Still, It's hard to pick him in a matchup with Alexandre Pantoja after seeing the way he was absolutely big-bothered on the mat by Kyoji Horiguchi in 2017 before being submitted. Pantoja is relentless when it comes to hunting for grappling exchanges (particularly early in fights), and Kape can lose some of his steam when someone else is doing the pressuring. While I expect him to get this done inside the distance, Pantoja's price here is low enough that he can put up a nice score if forced to sit in dominant position.
Alistair Overeem ($7,600)
Alexander Volkov wants to stand on a napkin and have a kickboxing match in the center of the Octagon. One thing we have seen from late-career Alistair Overeem is movement and agility in the cage. He has also gone to his wrestling quite a bit more, as seen in fights with Jair Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. Volkov's takedown defense has improved, but anyone who has wanted to has still been able to take him to the mat. This should act as a nice escape hatch if Overeem gets in trouble on the feet with the Russian fighter.
Fanduel Plays to Consider:
Mike Rodriguez ($20)
When speaking of novel scoring categories, it might be fair to say that none have had a bigger impact than 'takedowns defended.' We saw this most recently with Austin Lingo, who broke the slate in a major way when he paired his 95 significant strikes, knockdown, and takedown with 18 (!) takedowns defended against Jacob Kilburn. Mike Rodriguez may be able to pull off a similar feat against Danilo Marques, who landed just five of 16 takedowns against Khadis Ibragimov in his UFC debut. Rodriguez is the odds-on favorite to get a knockout as the rangy, powerful kickboxer with experience, and he could put up a huge score if he thwarts a few attempts along the way.
Cory Sandhagen ($23)
The same is true for Cory Sandhagen, except he has five rounds to accumulate points against Frankie Edgar, who is a whopping 3-for-33 in landed takedowns over his last five fights. To be sure, Sandhagen's takedown defense (30 percent) leaves something to be desired, but even if Frankie lands a few, Sandhagen has been a wizard when it comes to popping back up to his feet, which will leave the former champion to contend with an incredibly crafty striker who has a five-inch height advantage.
Ode Osbourne ($TBD)
Ode Osbourne was taught a quick lesson in leaving your neck out in his UFC debut against Brian Kelleher and will have to worry about submissions yet again when he faces late replacement, Jerome Rivera. The important thing to note here is that Rivera, who missed on all five of his takedown attempts in his last fight against Francisco Figueiredo, stands straight up in the pocket and has already been knocked out once in the UFC. If he can't get his wrestling going, he will have a hard time dealing with Osbourne, who throws clean, straight punches and kicks.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays to Consider:
Molly McCann u/106.5 sig. strikes + Lara Procopio U 110.5 sig. strikes
Her UFC debut against Karoline Rosa may suggest otherwise, but tape of Lara Procopio on the Brazilian regional scene shows a much more grapple-centric approach than the one we saw in August of 2019. She should also feel more comfortable taking this approach against a boxer like McCann. This sort of game plan would affect McCann as well, as every second she is up against the cage defending a takedown is a second she is not striking at range. We saw this in her most recent fight with Taila Santos when 'Meatball' landed just 48 significant strikes, due in no small part to Santos' seven takedown attempts.
Beneil Dariush under 54.5 sig. strikes + Diego Ferreira under 75.5 sig. strikes
I reject the assumption that Beneil Dariush will go out and try to throw hands with Diego Ferreira. I think it much more likely that, as I mentioned above, the forcing of a grappling game will work to depress output from both fighters. In their first fight, we saw that both men are perfectly willing to work their respective jujitsu games, and while it's beyond fair to point out that that bout took place in 2014, we have also seen Ferreira employ grapple-heavy strategies in the recent past. Another thing to note about playing these unders is that we are more likely to win if the fight results in an early stoppage, and these two have combined to finish seven of their last nine bouts before the third round.
This article is part of our The MMA Mashup series.
Last time, we had so much fun that they let us back in the door for the second installment of The MMA Mashup for UFC 258, which begins Saturday at 6:30 PM EST. This week, we get our first look at multiplier plays with SuperDraft as we once again guide discerning DFS players and gamblers across multiple platforms to determine the best places to play each fight on the 12-bout slate. One final note before we begin: as with my Handicapping the Octagon article series, all betting lines are taken from William Hill.
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Bets to Consider:
Kelvin Gastelum by decision: +100
This bet is made much simpler when one considers that these two men have only been finished three times in a combined 38 fights. Once we have established a high likelihood that the fight goes to decision, it's just a matter of deciding on the winner. Gastelum will likely have the edge here in virtually every area aside from strength. While it's true that Ian Heinisch is a willing wrestler, he owns a paltry 19 percent takedown rate in his six UFC fights, and Gastelum's ledger shows a solid 63 percent takedown defense rate. I expect Gastelum to keep this fight standing, where his quick hands and superior boxing should be enough to win the day.
Vegas Mma Lines
Chris Gutierrez: -150
As much as I love the slick boxing and speed that Andre Ewell brings to the cage, I didn't have a particularly hard time settling on Gutierrez here as the more fundamentally sound kickboxer. In one of the odder tales of the tape you'll ever see, Ewell has a one-inch height disadvantage despite sporting an eight-inch reach advantage. This would seem like a significant point in Ewell's favor until we remember that he will have that lead leg planted front-and-center for Gutierrez's nasty kicking game. He has also been working in his wrestling more often, and Ewell has been taken down in three of his five UFC fights.
DraftKings Plays to Consider:
Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300)
Vieira is an absolute powerhouse inside the cage and, as you might expect from someone with the nickname of 'The Black Belt Hunter,' has the best jiujitsu this side of Demian Maia. The BJJ world champion next sets his sights on Anthony Hernandez, who is a powerful volume striker but was choked out by another strong grappler in Markus Perez in 2019. While it took Perez several attempts to ground Hernandez, Vieira seems to be that rare breed of BJJ specialist that is actually a good wrestler. Vieira's price for a three-round fight might make some shy away, but I expect him to get this done early with a takedown (or two) and ground control time thrown in for good measure.
Kamaru Usman ($9,000)
Usman's high number of significant strikes and takedowns made him a dependable play under the old system, but the introduction of regular strikes and control time may just make his score read 'TILT' if he can put together a classic performance. How much of a boost could he get? Consider that 'The Nigerian Nightmare' would have averaged 129.8 (!) DraftKings points in his last five fights if the new categories were in place. Some may pump the breaks, reasoning that he won't want to take down such a high-level BJJ blackbelt as Gilbert Burns, but Usman had no qualms about taking down another black belt in Rafael Dos Anjos, bringing him to the mat 12 times in their bout. It should also be noted that Burns got incredibly tired after having to work for two rounds against Alexey Kunchenko, meaning the amount of danger Usman is in should get progressively less as the fight goes on.
Bobby Green ($8,900)
Green does a fair amount of everything in the cage, and as such should be a perfect candidate to benefit from the updated scoring. This eclectic style of volume striking, wrestling, and control would have netted him at least 98 points in two of his last three fights. Green has had more hard-luck split-decisions throughout his career than seems possible, but he should be several levels above Jim Miller here, who has gotten the majority of his recent victories by quick submission. Green has lost by tapout just twice in 28 professional fights and is an underrated defensive wrestler (72 percent defense rate), which should leave him free to impose his will on the aging veteran.
Miranda Maverick ($8,500)
Gillian Robertson has made a career in MMA by overwhelming lesser grapplers. The problem is that she has no standup game to speak of, so when she encounters grapplers who are better than she is (Mayra Bueno Silva, Taila Santos) it can lead to some pretty one-sided loses. I believe Maverick can basically do what Santos did to her for three rounds: execute takedowns and stay in top control while hunting for submissions. If this plan fails, we know from her last bout with Liana Jojua that she will have no problem letting her hands go and trying to get a quick TKO.
SuperDraft Plays to Consider:
Ricky Simon: 1.9X multiplier
Given that Simon has put up 130 or more points in three of his last five fights on SuperDraft, it seems odd that his multiplier is this high. One can only assume the reason for this is Brian Kelleher's stout 72 percent takedown defense rate, but 'Boom' has never faced a wrestler as relentless as Simon, and lately, he seems to have opted to let himself get taken to the floor in order to work his guillotine series. While this does mean he will have to look out for his neck, Simon has only been submitted once in his 20-fight career. The pressure and pace of the 28-year-old should make a horrible style matchup for Kelleher, who often gets off to slow starts before working his way into fights.
Polyana Viana: 2.05x multiplier
A 2-3 fighter in the UFC generally isn't someone to get excited about over a multiplier, but styles make fights, and Mallory Martin was taken down at will by Virna Jandiroba before practically putting herself in an arm triangle and getting submitted in the second round of that fight. Viana has finished seven of her 11 MMA wins via submission (including each of her last four) and I doubt Martin will be able to deal with her physicality inside the cage.
Gabriel Green: 2.05x multiplier
DraftKings may have pulled back on the points awarded for significant strikes, but the 0.75 that SuperDraft offers gave Green 95 points in his losing effort against Daniel Rodriguez. While we shouldn't expect that level of output in his sophomore showing against Phil Rowe, Green will constantly look to pressure his opponent against the cage and throw strikes. The 27-year-old has also shown some incredibly slick BJJ on the regional scene so takedowns on a tall and long opponent should not be out of the question. Rowe can use his aforementioned length, but too often throws himself out of position while putting together rote combinations. It should also be noted that pressure striking had Rowe in serious trouble early in his contender series fight against Leon Shahbazyan.
Maycee Barber: 2.2x multiplier
Remember Barber, the absolute whirlwind who came into the UFC as an undefeated fighter and went on a three-fight finishing streak? Apparently, one loss (in which she suffered a major knee injury) means she is no longer that person and necessitates she receive one of the biggest multipliers on the slate. Snarky attitude aside, I get being unsure of how Barber will perform after more than a year outside of the cage, but the 22-year-old has already handled a strong boxer in JJ Aldrich, overwhelming and stopping her in the second round. Alexa Grasso may get off some shots – or even have a reasonable opening frame – before Barber can get her game going, but I expect her to break under the pressure and powerful striking at some point.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays to Consider:
Belal Muhammad OVER 65.5 significant strikes and Dhiego Lima OVER 48.5 significant strikes.
Two facts kept running across my mind when contemplating this play: Muhammad is a high-volume striker (4.48 SLpM) and has finished just five of his 17 victories. Lima has improved his boxing tremendously in his second UFC run, and while I expect him to get swallowed up in the volume and pace of Muhammad, this should mean heavy striking on both sides. There is some danger that 'Remember the Name' will opt for a grapple-heavy approach on a longer, taller opponent, but he has succeeded on just 30 percent of his takedown attempts in the Octagon, and Lima is one fight removed from going 8-for-8 on takedown defense against Court McGee. This prowess, combined with the general high pace should net us a fairly comfortable over.
FanDuel Plays to Consider:
Mma Clothing Lines
Julian Marquez ($19)
Something that's very noticeable about Maki Pitolo's UFC run to this point is the degree to which he has been muscled around by some of the stronger fighters at the weight class. This hasn't always meant takedowns (as was the case with Callan Potter), but the strength differential has largely resulted in opponents being able to control where the fight takes place. It also means that the coconut bombs he sees fit to throw haven't resulted in many hurt or stunned fighters, even when he lands them clean. This is a problem when matched up with a tough guy like Julian Marquez, who will look to march Pitolo down and throw big shots. This should pay dividends no matter where you play, but it interests me for FanDuel because of Marquez's propensity to go for submissions, as he has attempted five in his two UFC fights. This could occur if Pitolo goes for a takedown, but that shouldn't be the only opportunity, as Marquez has been keen to wrap up his opponents and attempt front chokes. While it may not seem like much, each submission attempt is worth a cool five points, and having 10 or 15 points tacked onto what could be a big winning score can make all the difference.
